Ransomware: Escalating Threats to Retail During Peak Holiday Season

Executive Summary

Halcyon anticipates that ransomware groups pose a higher-than-normal threat to retailers this holiday season due to the industry’s low tolerance for downtime, recent successful attacks against major retailers, and the increased speed of ransomware attacks. This peak period exacerbates what is already an everyday threat.

This assessment outlines the growing ransomware threat to retail, how attackers continue to bypass security controls, and the critical defensive actions retail leaders must take to protect operations and customer trust during the holiday period.

Ransomware remains one of the most disruptive and immediate threats to the retail industry, directly impacting store operations, e-commerce, supply-chain logistics, and payment systems. Attackers deliberately time their campaigns for nights, weekends, and especially the holidays, when monitoring and response coverage are at their lowest.

To mitigate ransomware risk in the retail sector, organizations must strengthen identity and access controls, accelerate patching and configuration management, and segment critical retail networks. Secure management of remote tools and vendor access, deployment of dedicated anti-ransomware technologies, and rigorous protection of data, cloud, and backup systems are essential to maintain operational resilience.

Proactive response and recovery planning safeguards business continuity and reinforces customer trust when disruptions occur.

Scope of the Threat: Retail-Specific Trends

Ransomware is the primary threat to business operations in the retail sector (PDF). Attacks routinely target the systems that keep modern commerce running, including store networks, e-commerce platforms, payment systems, and logistics chains.

Criminal groups focus on retail because the sector depends on real-time data exchange and cannot afford prolonged outages without immediate financial and reputational fallout. This creates the urgency that attackers leverage to compel a ransom payment.

Key Ransomware Statistics for Retail

• $2M median ransom demand
• $1M median ransom payment
• $1.65M average recovery cost
• 58% of retail victims paid a ransom in 2025
• ‍837 incidents in 2024
• 419 included data exfiltration in 2024
• ‍93% included social engineering or WebApp attacks
• 20% included exploitation of VPNs or RMM

Sources: https://www.verizon.com/business/resources/infographics/2025-dbir-retail-snapshot.pdf (PDF); https://news.sophos.com/en-us/2025/08/19/the-state-of-ransomware-in-retail-2025/

Retail breaches are increasingly driven by threat actors who exploit vulnerabilities in remote-access tools and e-commerce applications to infiltrate networks. Once inside, attackers move laterally through systems that manage online sales, loyalty programs, and supply-chain operations. The most common entry points involve compromised VPNs and web apps that connect corporate IT with store-level and cloud-hosted environments.

Ransom demands and recovery costs regularly reach millions of dollars, while data theft adds legal and reputational exposure. Many retailers still choose to pay attackers to restore operations, highlighting persistent gaps in resilience and recovery planning. However, paying a ransom does not guarantee restoration of systems or deletion of stolen data, and nearly 80% of organizations that paid a ransom were hit a second time, with only 47% recovering their data uncorrupted after payment.

Case Study: Major UK Retailer Operations Disrupted

A major UK retailer suffered a supply chain–driven ransomware attack in April of 2025 that disrupted nearly every aspect of its digital operations. The intrusion originated through a third-party contractor, enabling attackers to pivot into core retail systems and cripple online fulfillment and e-commerce platforms.

Case Study Graphic Summary: Retail Sector Ransomware Impact

• Estimated Loss: £300M (~$400M USD) in operating profit (https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/britains-ms-says-cyberattack-cost-400-million-2025-05-21/)
• Insurance Coverage: Up to £100M (£200-300M not covered) (https://www.ft.com/content/723b6195-1ce7-4b5f-94f5-729e9152c578)
• Market Impact: 8–16% share drop; ~£1B market-cap loss (https://www.ft.com/content/723b6195-1ce7-4b5f-94f5-729e9152c578)

The compromise halted digital transactions, forced the suspension of customer services, and caused cascading impacts across logistics and store networks. Stock replenishment and “click & collect” services were delayed for weeks, straining both distribution centers and in-store operations. Limited customer data exposure further undermined trust, while manual fulfillment processes highlighted the fragility of digital-first retail environments.

This incident underscored how a supply chain compromise can serve as a single point of failure for omnichannel retail (in-store, online, and mobile), disrupting not only direct commerce but also dependent vendors, logistics partners, and customer experience at scale. The aftermath prompted leadership turnover and accelerated modernization efforts, including the departure of the Chief Digital & Technology Officer and the compression of a two-year technology transformation plan into six months.

Ransomware Disruption Pathways in the Retail Sector

Ransomware threats against the retail sector are evolving beyond simple encryption attacks to exploit the industry’s deep interconnectivity and reliance on digital operations. Adversaries now target every layer of the retail ecosystem, from endpoints and supplier access to identity systems and data flows, seeking to maximize disruption and leverage data theft for extortion. The following risk areas illustrate how modern ransomware tactics intersect with critical business operations and supply chain dependencies:

• Endpoint Security Evasion: Attackers now deploy tools that blind or disable EPP and EDR protections, using kernel-level “EDR killer” utilities to neutralize endpoint defenses before encryption or data theft.
• Vendor and Access Dependency Risk: Retailers’ reliance on remote access and vendor integrations creates exploitable pathways, including the use of unpatched remote-support platforms like SimpleHelp (CVE-2024-57727) to breach downstream store and fulfillment systems.
• ‍Supply Chain Disruption and Operational Cascade: Attackers exploit weak authentication and shared VPNs within logistics, e-commerce, and payment integrations, then pivot into warehouse management and order-fulfillment systems to cause cascading operational failures.
• Business Systems and Identity Compromise: Ransomware groups increasingly focus on business applications, exploiting stolen or reused credentials (PDF) to access e-commerce portals, loyalty systems, and payment applications, often abusing help desk resets or session issuance to disrupt sales and in-store operations.

Top Threat Groups Impacting Retail

Ransomware operations targeting retail in late 2025 show a clear shift toward speed, data theft, and broader disruption. Campaigns increasingly combine encryption with extortion and supply-chain intrusion, turning what used to be isolated attacks into events that impact entire ecosystems. Attackers are acting with startling speed: some incidents complete full data exfiltration and deployment in just hours:

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Many of these groups share infrastructure and affiliates, but their methods diverge. Some groups focus on rapid encryption to drive downtime and payment, while others rely on large-scale data theft or compromise of vendor networks to reach multiple retailers at once. The increasing use of shared access brokers and overlapping toolsets makes it harder for defenders to pinpoint where risk truly originates.

This evolution shows that ransomware is a full-scale business continuity threat for retail. Disruption extends beyond IT to operations, logistics, payments, and brand reputation, reflecting the reality that attackers exploit the entire digital commerce ecosystem rather than just a single target.

Mitigation and Resilience Guidance for the Retail Sector

Ransomware attacks in retail exploit operational dependencies such as remote access, vendor integrations, and interconnected supply chains. The following mitigation actions align cybersecurity best practices with retail operations to preserve uptime, protect revenue, and maintain customer trust:

• Strengthen Identity and Access Controls: Require phishing-resistant multifactor authentication for all remote access, supplier portals, and identity systems. Apply least-privilege permissions, regularly review admin accounts, and enforce strict verification for MFA resets or session issuance. [M1032, M1017].
• Accelerate Patching and Configuration Management: Patch VPNs, remote-support tools, and web applications within accelerated SLAs, prioritizing exploited software such as SimpleHelp (CVE-2024-57727), SSL VPNs, and ESXi hosts. Establish a high-risk patch ring for edge, WAF, and hypervisor systems to prevent mass exploitation. [M1051].
• Segment and Harden Retail Networks: Separate POS, store, e-commerce, and warehouse or OMS systems from corporate IT. Limit vendor ingress, restrict lateral movement, and enforce application control on POS and kiosk endpoints. [M1030, M1038].
• Manage Remote Tools and Third-Party Access: Allow-list approved RMM platforms, require jump hosts, and link sessions to device trust. Mandate MFA and short-lived credentials for third parties, with right-to-audit clauses and 24-hour incident notifications in contracts. [M1036, M1032, M1017].
• Deploy Dedicated Anti-Ransomware Protections: Implement technology that blocks ransomware binaries pre-execution, detects runtime behaviors and exfiltration attempts, and prevents tampering with EDR, backups, or network defenses. [M1038, M1040, M1031, M1053].
• Protect Data and Cloud Environments: Monitor outbound traffic for large archive creation or unusual SaaS uploads. Apply DLP and egress controls, restrict public cloud buckets, and alert on bulk or after-hours transfers. [M1037].
• ‍Safeguard Backup and Recovery Processes: Maintain immutable or offline backups for key revenue systems such as e-commerce and POS. Test restores regularly to validate RTO objectives and confirm that backups cannot be altered or deleted. [M1053].
• Prepare for Operational Disruptions: Maintain a tested ransomware playbook that covers store operations continuity, payment fallback procedures, and communications with regulators, partners, and customers. Increase monitoring and on-call readiness during nights, weekends, and holidays. [M1017]

Effective ransomware defense in retail depends on protecting the systems that keep commerce moving. Combining access control, supplier management, segmentation, and rehearsed recovery ensures that a single intrusion cannot cascade into an enterprise-wide outage. These measures support business continuity, safeguard revenue, and preserve consumer confidence during even the most severe ransomware incidents.

Outlook and Research Priorities

Continued research is needed to deepen our understanding of how ransomware operations evolve within the retail sector. Longitudinal analysis of threat actor behavior, affiliate networks, and campaign timing would clarify how adversaries adapt to retail’s connected business model. Establishing standardized methods to measure the operational and financial impact of ransomware incidents would also improve benchmarking across retail segments and support more data-driven resilience planning.

The growing complexity of retail supply chains remains a central risk factor. Mapping dependencies across vendors, managed services, and logistics networks can reveal systemic vulnerabilities where a single compromise could trigger widespread disruption. Continued evaluation of legal and policy frameworks is likewise critical to ensure that disclosure, data protection, and liability requirements reflect the realities of shared digital infrastructure and third-party operations.

Stronger collaboration and intelligence sharing between retailers, cybersecurity providers, and public agencies will be essential to counter this threat. Enhanced mechanisms for real-time threat intelligence sharing, coordinated response, and collective situational awareness can shorten dwell time and contain cascading supply chain impacts. Advancing research into response maturity, readiness testing, and the economics of ransom payments will further inform industry standards and deterrence strategies, helping the retail sector shift from reactive defense to predictive, intelligence-led resilience.

In Summary: Ransomware Threatens Retail Operations This Holiday Season (and Every Holiday Season)

Ransomware is a strategic threat to data, operations, and commerce itself. These attacks ripple outward from a single compromise, affecting suppliers, fulfillment centers, and customer trust in equal measure.

Protecting retail during the holidays requires coordinated readiness between technology, supply chain, and business leadership. Preventing disruption, maintaining resilience, and ensuring business continuity are critical to protecting both revenue and reputation when it matters most.

Halcyon provides the anti-ransomware platform built to meet this challenge. By detecting and disrupting attacks before they can encrypt systems or exfiltrate data, Halcyon helps retailers maintain uptime, preserve customer trust, and safeguard the integrity of operations throughout the peak season and beyond.

The Halcyon Ransomware Research Center (RRC) is dedicated to uniting experts, defenders, and policymakers to advance understanding of the ransomware threat landscape. The RRC fosters collaborative intelligence sharing, drives informed public policy, and delivers timely research to strengthen collective defense against ransomware and data extortion. Explore the latest RRC reports, analysis, and resources here.